Hurricane Milton could reduce Disney earnings, Goldman says

Projected park closures and disruptions from Hurricane Milton could cut into Walt Disney’s earnings, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.

The firm estimated Tuesday that the hurricane, projected to make landfall in central Florida as soon as Wednesday, could reduce earnings before interest and taxes for Disney’s Parks and Experiences segment by about $150 million to $200 million in its current 2025 fiscal first quarter. Goldman’s estimate would exceed the effect on Disney from Hurricane Irma in 2017, which reduced earnings by about $100 million after the parks were forced to close for two days and some cruise ships were disrupted, according to the firm.

Goldman Sachs reduced its estimate for Disney’s fiscal 2025 earnings per share from $5.22 to $5.14. It also estimated that Disney’s first-quarter domestic attendance would take a hit from the storm, projecting a decline of 6% instead of an earlier estimate of down 2%. The firm’s estimates for Disney’s recently ended fourth quarter largely remained the same, with an outlook for earnings per share of $1.16 and a Parks and Experiences segment operating income of $3.8 billion.

As of Tuesday morning, the storm was around 545 miles southwest of Tampa moving at 12 mph. With sustained winds of 145 mph, the storm dropped down to a Category 4 hurricane and could hit the Florida coast as a Category 3.

The storm is projected to make landfall around the Tampa area, which hasn’t been hit directly by a hurricane since 1921. The storm is then projected to head toward Orlando, where Disney World is located, as it decreases in intensity.

Disney has not made any announcements about potential closures. Spokespeople for Disney did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on the new earnings estimates.